Record

Daily edge slips

Every morning one edge slip is saved with the default settings (up to 3 matches). If the probabilities are right, the number of slips won should be close to the number expected. Profit is per one-unit slip at the saved Betano odds.

1 match2 settled, 1.0 wins expected, -0.25u (ROI -12.5%), 1 in play

1 / 250% vs 51% expected

2 matches1 settled, 0.2 wins expected, -1.00u (ROI -100.0%)

0 / 10% vs 22% expected

In play

Slip of 2026-11-14Vendée Fontenay – Clermont Foot: Under 4.5 at 1.55

Settled picks

Every pick is saved when it is published and can never be edited or deleted. Results use a flat stake of one unit at the published odds. Approximate CLV compares the published odds with Pinnacle's last de-vigged odds we read before kickoff, which can be up to 3 hours before the start; beating the closing odds is the best long-run sign of a real edge.

Picks6

Profit-3.8u

Yield-62.5%

Won17%

Approximate CLV+4.6%

Vicenza Virtus – CremoneseX (draw) at 3.3, BetanoLost -1.00u

St. Truiden – Zulte Waregem2 (away) at 4.55, BetanoLost -1.00u

WSG Wattens – Austria Vienna2 (away) at 2.7, BetanoLost -1.00u

Real Sociedad – Rayo Vallecano2 (away) at 4.67, 1xBetLost -1.00u

Le Mans – Monaco2 (away) at 1.8, 1xBetLost -1.00u

Houston Dynamo – St. Louis CityUnder 2.5 at 2.25, Bet365Won +1.25u

What matters

Every week each feature is tested on past matches the model had not seen yet. A feature is kept only when it lowers the log loss clearly beyond noise; kept features adjust today's probabilities for that market.

Cards

Referee (beyond the card model's own referee factor)Log-loss gain -0.0001 per selectionDropped

Derby (beyond any derby factor the model already has)Log-loss gain -0.0000 per selectionDropped

Match closenessLog-loss gain +0.0018 per selectionKept

Nothing to play for (sides with no table line left to reach or lose)Log-loss gain +0.0006 per selectionKept

Rest days (less-rested team)Log-loss gain -0.0001 per selectionDropped

Matches in the last 14 daysLog-loss gain -0.0001 per selectionDropped

European match midweekLog-loss gain -0.0002 per selectionDropped

Second legLog-loss gain +0.0005 per selectionDropped

First-leg marginLog-loss gain -0.0002 per selectionDropped

Missing regular starters (share of minutes)Log-loss gain +0.0007 per selectionDropped

Missing regular starters (share of shots)Log-loss gain +0.0004 per selectionDropped

New coach since the previous matchLog-loss gain -0.0001 per selectionDropped

Rotation (XI changes from the previous match)Log-loss gain -0.0002 per selectionDropped

All kept features5926 matches tested, updated 10/11/2026+0.0022

Corners

Derby (beyond any derby factor the model already has)Log-loss gain -0.0001 per selectionDropped

Match closenessLog-loss gain -0.0004 per selectionDropped

Nothing to play for (sides with no table line left to reach or lose)Log-loss gain -0.0002 per selectionDropped

Rest days (less-rested team)Log-loss gain -0.0001 per selectionDropped

Matches in the last 14 daysLog-loss gain -0.0003 per selectionDropped

European match midweekLog-loss gain -0.0005 per selectionDropped

Second legLog-loss gain -0.0003 per selectionDropped

First-leg marginLog-loss gain -0.0004 per selectionDropped

Missing regular starters (share of minutes)Log-loss gain -0.0003 per selectionDropped

Missing regular starters (share of shots)Log-loss gain -0.0003 per selectionDropped

New coach since the previous matchLog-loss gain -0.0006 per selectionDropped

Rotation (XI changes from the previous match)Log-loss gain -0.0001 per selectionDropped

All kept features6027 matches tested, updated 10/11/2026+0.0000

Halves

Derby (beyond any derby factor the model already has)Log-loss gain -0.0000 per selectionDropped

Match closenessLog-loss gain +0.0000 per selectionDropped

Nothing to play for (sides with no table line left to reach or lose)Log-loss gain -0.0000 per selectionDropped

Rest days (less-rested team)Log-loss gain -0.0000 per selectionDropped

Matches in the last 14 daysLog-loss gain -0.0000 per selectionDropped

European match midweekLog-loss gain -0.0000 per selectionDropped

Second legLog-loss gain -0.0000 per selectionDropped

First-leg marginLog-loss gain -0.0000 per selectionDropped

Missing regular starters (share of minutes)Log-loss gain +0.0000 per selectionDropped

Missing regular starters (share of shots)Log-loss gain +0.0000 per selectionDropped

New coach since the previous matchLog-loss gain +0.0000 per selectionDropped

Rotation (XI changes from the previous match)Log-loss gain +0.0000 per selectionDropped

League first-half goal share (beyond the model's own league split)Log-loss gain +0.0001 per selectionDropped

All kept features29872 matches tested, updated 10/11/2026+0.0000

Player cards

Confirmed starter (beyond expected minutes)Log-loss gain +0.0000 per selectionDropped

Match closenessLog-loss gain +0.0002 per selectionKept

Referee (beyond the card model's own referee factor)Log-loss gain -0.0000 per selectionDropped

All kept features5743 matches tested, updated 10/11/2026+0.0002

Player fouls

Confirmed starter (beyond expected minutes)Log-loss gain +0.0000 per selectionKept

Match closenessLog-loss gain +0.0001 per selectionKept

Referee (beyond the card model's own referee factor)Log-loss gain +0.0000 per selectionDropped

All kept features5743 matches tested, updated 10/11/2026+0.0002

Player goals

Confirmed starter (beyond expected minutes)Log-loss gain +0.0000 per selectionDropped

Penalty taker (share of team penalties)Log-loss gain +0.0004 per selectionKept

Match closenessLog-loss gain +0.0000 per selectionDropped

All kept features5743 matches tested, updated 10/11/2026+0.0004

Player shots

Confirmed starter (beyond expected minutes)Log-loss gain +0.0001 per selectionDropped

Match closenessLog-loss gain +0.0000 per selectionDropped

All kept features5743 matches tested, updated 10/11/2026+0.0000

What matters

Cards

Referee (beyond the card model's own referee factor)Log-loss gain -0.0001 per selectionDropped

Derby (beyond any derby factor the model already has)Log-loss gain -0.0000 per selectionDropped

Match closenessLog-loss gain +0.0018 per selectionKept

Nothing to play for (sides with no table line left to reach or lose)Log-loss gain +0.0006 per selectionKept

Rest days (less-rested team)Log-loss gain -0.0001 per selectionDropped

Matches in the last 14 daysLog-loss gain -0.0001 per selectionDropped

European match midweekLog-loss gain -0.0002 per selectionDropped

Second legLog-loss gain +0.0005 per selectionDropped

First-leg marginLog-loss gain -0.0002 per selectionDropped

Missing regular starters (share of minutes)Log-loss gain +0.0007 per selectionDropped

Missing regular starters (share of shots)Log-loss gain +0.0004 per selectionDropped

New coach since the previous matchLog-loss gain -0.0001 per selectionDropped

Rotation (XI changes from the previous match)Log-loss gain -0.0002 per selectionDropped

All kept features5926 matches tested, updated 10/11/2026+0.0022

Corners

Derby (beyond any derby factor the model already has)Log-loss gain -0.0001 per selectionDropped

Match closenessLog-loss gain -0.0004 per selectionDropped

Nothing to play for (sides with no table line left to reach or lose)Log-loss gain -0.0002 per selectionDropped

Rest days (less-rested team)Log-loss gain -0.0001 per selectionDropped

Matches in the last 14 daysLog-loss gain -0.0003 per selectionDropped

European match midweekLog-loss gain -0.0005 per selectionDropped

Second legLog-loss gain -0.0003 per selectionDropped

First-leg marginLog-loss gain -0.0004 per selectionDropped

Missing regular starters (share of minutes)Log-loss gain -0.0003 per selectionDropped

Missing regular starters (share of shots)Log-loss gain -0.0003 per selectionDropped

New coach since the previous matchLog-loss gain -0.0006 per selectionDropped

Rotation (XI changes from the previous match)Log-loss gain -0.0001 per selectionDropped

All kept features6027 matches tested, updated 10/11/2026+0.0000

Halves

Derby (beyond any derby factor the model already has)Log-loss gain -0.0000 per selectionDropped

Match closenessLog-loss gain +0.0000 per selectionDropped

Nothing to play for (sides with no table line left to reach or lose)Log-loss gain -0.0000 per selectionDropped

Rest days (less-rested team)Log-loss gain -0.0000 per selectionDropped

Matches in the last 14 daysLog-loss gain -0.0000 per selectionDropped

European match midweekLog-loss gain -0.0000 per selectionDropped

Second legLog-loss gain -0.0000 per selectionDropped

First-leg marginLog-loss gain -0.0000 per selectionDropped

Missing regular starters (share of minutes)Log-loss gain +0.0000 per selectionDropped

Missing regular starters (share of shots)Log-loss gain +0.0000 per selectionDropped

New coach since the previous matchLog-loss gain +0.0000 per selectionDropped

Rotation (XI changes from the previous match)Log-loss gain +0.0000 per selectionDropped

League first-half goal share (beyond the model's own league split)Log-loss gain +0.0001 per selectionDropped

All kept features29872 matches tested, updated 10/11/2026+0.0000

Player cards

Confirmed starter (beyond expected minutes)Log-loss gain +0.0000 per selectionDropped

Match closenessLog-loss gain +0.0002 per selectionKept

Referee (beyond the card model's own referee factor)Log-loss gain -0.0000 per selectionDropped

All kept features5743 matches tested, updated 10/11/2026+0.0002

Player fouls

Confirmed starter (beyond expected minutes)Log-loss gain +0.0000 per selectionKept

Match closenessLog-loss gain +0.0001 per selectionKept

Referee (beyond the card model's own referee factor)Log-loss gain +0.0000 per selectionDropped

All kept features5743 matches tested, updated 10/11/2026+0.0002

Player goals

Confirmed starter (beyond expected minutes)Log-loss gain +0.0000 per selectionDropped

Penalty taker (share of team penalties)Log-loss gain +0.0004 per selectionKept

Match closenessLog-loss gain +0.0000 per selectionDropped

All kept features5743 matches tested, updated 10/11/2026+0.0004

Player shots

Confirmed starter (beyond expected minutes)Log-loss gain +0.0001 per selectionDropped

Match closenessLog-loss gain +0.0000 per selectionDropped

All kept features5743 matches tested, updated 10/11/2026+0.0000